after blair

If the prevarications of the Clinton era have left center-to-progressive politics in noticeable disarray, the same can be said for the legacy of Clinton's cousin across the pond, Tony Blair. Blair's attempts to dismantle the Labour Party's ties to it's traditional bases in the trade unions and the new left may have created a considerable, but unstable electoral majority- just as Clinton's triangulation afforded the Democrats our only two-term president in my lifetime. As any hoverbike reader knows, I have serious doubts that the centrist strategy is good for our side in the long run. Life after Clinton has been hard for the Democrats, and the broad left, as we struggle to figure out what a progressive message, let alone progressive governance, looks like in the twenty-first century.
Blair's inevitable departure as Party Leader (and Prime Minister) is setting the stage for a political battle that, mirroring the 2004 Presidential Primary, will be a referendum on the meaning and consequences of the New Labour project. The heir apparent, Chancellor Gordon Brown, represents the segment of the party which is more traditional (and progressive) than the hard-core of New Labor, but which has gone along with Blair's rightward drift for the sake of victory and party unity. Most analysts believe that a Labor Party under Brown will continue the generally centrist approach of the current government, while strengthening slightly the commitment to the welfare state, trade union rights and a social justice-based trade policy. Even this difference, however, has been in question of late as Brown seems to be signaling his own shift to the right. Other voices (and potential Leader candidates) have emerged, however, positioning themselves as heralds of a more decisive shift to the left.
The darlings of the far-left blogosphere (think of them as somewhat akin to Dennis Kucinich) are John McDonnell and Michael Meacher. McDonnell has attracted attention and some key commitments from some of the grassroots. Meacher has nabbed some headlines for adding his voice to the 911 conspiracy chorus. Neither candidate is likely to win, given the powerful role that the party’s parliamentary group plays in selecting a leader. In the case of Meacher, that’s probably a blessing.
Other floating names include two cabinet members, John Denham of the Home office and Peter Hain, the Northern Ireland Secretary. As is the case here, the Iraq war looms heavily over the leadership question. The Party’s grassroots are strongly anti-war, and Blair’s continuing support for the Bush Administration’s policies has angered the base as well as a large percentage of Labour members of parliament. There have been high-profile cabinet resignations, as well as an upsurge in support for anti-war parties both to the left and the right of Labour. There is certainly an argument to be made, as it is here, that to be the leading party of the center-left, Labour must have a coherent, and progressive position on the war, while remaining credible and pragmatic on the overall question of national defense. That’s not an easy line to walk, but Blair’s lap-dog routine only works so long as the Conservatives don’t provide a viable alternative.
In Bush, the Republicans found just such an alternative. The new Conservative leader, David Cameron, is looking more and more like a serious challenger. In the next British election, Brown may well end up joining Al Gore as the failed continuation of the “Third Way” model. Only a strong and compelling reason to vote Labour will stop that from happening, and an internal challenge from the left of the party may be what it takes to force Brown to campaign on the Party’s strengths, instead of the Conservatives’ weaknesses. Let us just pray that he doesn’t put in a call to Kerry’s advisors.

To follow the Labout Party’s leadership saga, check out the daily, a fantastic new blog from which I blatantly stole much of the above analysis and information.