looking ahead 2: hillary, barack and john

So, the other major theme which will no doubt preoccupy all of us over the next year or so is the emerging contest for President. In my mind, there are really only three interesting candidates: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Now, before you click "comments" in order to throw out some other person's name, take a second to consider the list that I just threw out. One is a woman. One is African-American. The third just began his Presidential campaign by calling for a withdrawal from Iraq, universial health care and the importance of unions. Regardless of who else crowds the field, these three candidates will present a set of dilemmas for the Democratic left. How important is it to break the monopoly on power by white men in American politics? What does Obama's acceptance by many white voters really mean? Why hasn't Clinton tried to appeal to disaffected white working class voters? Will Obama?

It is tempting to oversimplify this dynamic, but it is rare to see such a blatant example of the difficulties of parsing race, class and gender. My guess is that, given the high stakes of the war and the powerful pulls of identity, this could be the most bitter primary fight since 1968. The debates started hard and heavy for me and my family over the Christmas holiday. My mother informed me that she'd stop talking to me if I voted for anyone other than Hillary...but then she softened as Edwards made an inspiring, if imperfect entry into the fray. My mother-in-common-law argued that Obama's rapid rise to stardom may have been a deliberate strategy by conservatives to divide the party. I think that white, liberal women will forgive a lot from Hillary, and I can't completely blame them. My father is going to support anyone who seems vaguely viable and who will take a strong stand on the country's murderous foriegn policy. As a black man, I am trying to figure out what I make of the fact that many of Obama's fans see him as an example of "post race" politics. At the same time, I think, goddamn. President. Barack. Obama. And then, there is Edwards. He's unambiguously anti-war, even if that position took a major mea culpa. He's talking about the economy in a way that few have in recent years. He's charismatic, unassuming and straight-forward. His is a voice which should continue to exist in the Party.

There's no conclusion here. I'm just trying to sketch out the terms of a debate which will no doubt rage here at hoverbike as it does among my diverse family. The decisive factor for me, however, will be to watch how these three campaign, what kind of organizations they build, and what the long term impact of thier efforts will be. That's how I settled on Dean, and I feel vindicated. Watch this space.